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A long track supercell has been chugging across E Kansas all morning and is now entering Missouri. We intercepted it in Paola, KS and sat while the core overtook us. We were dissapointed to only see nickel sized hail at best considering the baseball to softball sized hail that had been dropping from it. The winds however were insanely strong close to 70-75mph. Rain was very intense as well.
Tornado watch out of a small portion of EC KS/WC MO. Could be something to watch as cells move into that area.
Currently sitting in Topeka with Pritchard; we refuse to give up on today. I've never been so confused while chasing; it appears the only thing the models agree on is to disagree on everything. Seriously, it's as though they all placed bets with each other that their forecast would be correct, forcing the other two to forecast a completely different setup.
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Cu field has formed in EC KS, which is under a loaded gun at the moment. If that cap goes later, there will be sups and tors. Will it go?
I suppose the only thing to do is head south...
I agree with Colin. It looks nice over EC Kansas right now! As long as the cap breaks we could see big supercells with extremely large hail and tornadoes. Sadly, I have something to be at till 6:30, but since my dad is off of work today and will be monitoring and may go out and chase if it looks good. Right now I think things may stay in check for a bit longer due to the fact the atmosphere may need to recover, but I wouldn't let your guard down just yet if you live in Topeka/Emporia/Kansas City as things could get dicey later this evening/night. Sheet1::
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I hate it when I'm just getting ready to post regarding the DDC shortfuse composite showing initiation imminent in SW Kansas and I expect a SPC mesoscale discussion any minute - and before I can get the post up, there is a mesoscale discussion regarding imminent initiation in SW Kansas.
On the plus side, this means that I'm finally starting to get the hang of some of this. :) I look for something to pop south of Garden City and then blow up that juicy spot between Garden City and DDC shortly. 8:55 PM Edit: OK, so I'm not getting the hang of this as much as I had hoped.
Technically this is more of a short term forecast than a NOW thread post, eh? :confused:
Looks like initiation just west of the KS/CO border west of Goodland (just north of I70).
That storm, tornado-warned for a while now, has looked awesome on radar for the past couple hours, though perhaps a bit less impressive the last couple scans. Still potent, though. There have been reports of baseball hail and estimated 70 mph wind, and the track will bring it very close to the city of Springfield if it holds together - perhaps just northeast of there, but that could also put the city at risk for a tornado given the position of the updraft.
Convective Initiation has begun near Burlington, CO and will move into KS shortly. Severe thunderstorm warning already has been issued. 3 PM MDT. TM
10:30 am Central
I tried to make up mind whether to go on to I-70 and wait for the stormcells there or go down I-35 toward Ottawa. It looked like these storms angling NE now so I hopped on to I-35 and watched there for a while. No hail just rain. There looked like a shelf cloud over Olathe but then it disintegrated into ragged junk. There was cloud to cloud lightning and cloud to ground.
I headed south to Gardner, KS where I could possibly intercept some of cells moving in from South of Manhattan near Ottawa. Sat there next to the Super 8 off of the exit , trying out the wifi with my ibook g4 and check on things. Happily it worked well . Same stuff but nothing spectacular weather wise.
Lots of rain and nothing in the way of storm intensification, no hail etc . I was hoping to get at least a couple of good photos of bigger hailstones compared to earlier in the year but it was not to be.
Headed North back on I-35, near I-435 as I heard storms were juicing up from DeSoto and coming this way. But I broke off when the clouds started braking up.
Headed back to Olathe. It's beautiful now outside and clear. All the clouds and mammatus/scud pieces/clouds have disappeared.
Got back home 1:12 pm
I will keep looking at conditions, watching the French Open and wait to see if more develops for tonight.
That big tornado-warned supercell entering terra incognita the Ozarks in Southwest Missouri. Were I there (my old hiking haunts) I would be tempted to find an elevated viewing point just south of the storm's SE track and let it roll by just N/NE of me. Hanging with it would be very difficult in the hills, trees, and twisting road network, but a couple of smart intercepts would be possible, and the elevated terrain could help viewing. If it hangs together it might pop out later in the flat terrain over east Arkansas/Mo Bootheel area, but it might be more of a bow-MCS by then.
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6/2/08 NOW: KS/MO